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Charts / Glossary

Confidence interval

A chart word, with the charts that use it.

Definition

A confidence interval is the range a value likely falls in, drawn as a band or a whisker. A wide interval means the value is less certain.

Updated Nov 2, 2026

On-time rate by carrierOn-time delivery over 30 days with 95% confidence intervals against the 95% SLA: 2 of 6 carriers are above it (Nordline, Rapida), 1 below (Lumen Post 89.8%), the rest uncertain.85%90%SLA 95%100%NordlineRapidaParceloSwift EUCargo OneLumen Post
On-time rate by carrier
CarrierOn-timeLow (95%)High (95%)
Nordline97.2%96.4%98%
Rapida96.4%95.7%97.1%
Parcelo95.8%94.1%97.5%
Swift EU94.1%92.8%95.4%
Cargo One92.6%90.2%95%
Lumen Post89.8%86.5%93.1%
On-time rate by carrierOn-time delivery over 30 days with 95% confidence intervals against the 95% SLA: 2 of 6 carriers are above it (Nordline, Rapida), 1 below (Lumen Post 89.8%), the rest uncertain.85%90%SLA 95%100%NordlineRapidaParceloSwift EUCargo OneLumen Post
On-time rate by carrier
CarrierOn-timeLow (95%)High (95%)
Nordline97.2%96.4%98%
Rapida96.4%95.7%97.1%
Parcelo95.8%94.1%97.5%
Swift EU94.1%92.8%95.4%
Cargo One92.6%90.2%95%
Lumen Post89.8%86.5%93.1%
  1. 01The estimateThe dot is the best guess for each carrier.
  2. 02The intervalThe line around it is the range it likely falls in.

Where you see it

  • Cash balance forecastCash balance from May to October (actual, $2.41M today) and forecast to April: $2.66M, with a p10–p90 band of $2.24M to $3.08M.3.2M2.7M2.3M1.8MMAYOCTAPRACTUALFORECAST
    Cash balance forecast
    MonthBalanceP10P90Kind
    May$2.10M$2.08M$2.12MActual
    Jun$2.20M$2.18M$2.22MActual
    Jul$2.15M$2.13M$2.17MActual
    Aug$2.30M$2.28M$2.32MActual
    Sep$2.35M$2.33M$2.37MActual
    Oct$2.41M$2.39M$2.43MActual
    Nov$2.46M$2.39M$2.53MForecast
    Dec$2.50M$2.36M$2.64MForecast
    Jan$2.52M$2.31M$2.73MForecast
    Feb$2.58M$2.30M$2.86MForecast
    Mar$2.60M$2.25M$2.95MForecast
    Apr$2.66M$2.24M$3.08MForecast
    Cash balance forecastCash balance from May to October (actual, $2.41M today) and forecast to April: $2.66M, with a p10–p90 band of $2.24M to $3.08M.3.2M2.7M2.3M1.8MMAYOCTAPRACTUALFORECAST
    Cash balance forecast
    MonthBalanceP10P90Kind
    May$2.10M$2.08M$2.12MActual
    Jun$2.20M$2.18M$2.22MActual
    Jul$2.15M$2.13M$2.17MActual
    Aug$2.30M$2.28M$2.32MActual
    Sep$2.35M$2.33M$2.37MActual
    Oct$2.41M$2.39M$2.43MActual
    Nov$2.46M$2.39M$2.53MForecast
    Dec$2.50M$2.36M$2.64MForecast
    Jan$2.52M$2.31M$2.73MForecast
    Feb$2.58M$2.30M$2.86MForecast
    Mar$2.60M$2.25M$2.95MForecast
    Apr$2.66M$2.24M$3.08MForecast

    015 · Forecast bandChange over time · Fintech data

  • On-time rate by carrierOn-time delivery over 30 days with 95% confidence intervals against the 95% SLA: 2 of 6 carriers are above it (Nordline, Rapida), 1 below (Lumen Post 89.8%), the rest uncertain.85%90%SLA 95%100%NordlineRapidaParceloSwift EUCargo OneLumen PostABOVE SLAUNCERTAINBELOW SLA
    On-time rate by carrier
    CarrierOn-timeLow (95%)High (95%)
    Nordline97.2%96.4%98%
    Rapida96.4%95.7%97.1%
    Parcelo95.8%94.1%97.5%
    Swift EU94.1%92.8%95.4%
    Cargo One92.6%90.2%95%
    Lumen Post89.8%86.5%93.1%
    On-time rate by carrierOn-time delivery over 30 days with 95% confidence intervals against the 95% SLA: 2 of 6 carriers are above it (Nordline, Rapida), 1 below (Lumen Post 89.8%), the rest uncertain.85%90%SLA 95%100%NordlineRapidaParceloSwift EUCargo OneLumen PostABOVE SLAUNCERTAINBELOW SLA
    On-time rate by carrier
    CarrierOn-timeLow (95%)High (95%)
    Nordline97.2%96.4%98%
    Rapida96.4%95.7%97.1%
    Parcelo95.8%94.1%97.5%
    Swift EU94.1%92.8%95.4%
    Cargo One92.6%90.2%95%
    Lumen Post89.8%86.5%93.1%

    050 · Dot plot with intervalsDistribution · Logistics data

Common mistakes

Reading the dot as certain

Two dots can differ while their intervals overlap. Read the intervals first.

Leaving out the level

Say what the interval covers, such as 95%, so readers know how sure it is.

Questions

What does a 95% interval mean?

If the measurement were repeated many times, about 95 in 100 such intervals would hold the true value.

How is a forecast band related?

It is the same idea over time: the range the future value likely falls in.

In the kit

Forecast band, dot plot with intervals and the other types.

In Figma and React, in four sizes, light and dark. Pay once, every update.

See plans

Every chart word, A to Z.

Open the glossary